Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets

Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets
Author: Morris Goldstein
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 181
Release: 2004-04-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0881324574

In most of the currency crises of the 1990s, the largest output falls have occurred in those emerging economies with large currency mismatches, a phenomenon that occurs when assets and liabilities are denominated in different currencies such that net worth is sensitive to changes in the exchange rate. Currency mismatching makes crisis management much more difficult since it constrains the willingness of the monetary authority to reduce interest rates in a recession (for fear of initiating a large fall in the currency that would bring with it large-scale insolvencies). The mismatching also produces a "fear of floating" on the part of emerging economies, sometimes inducing them to make currency-regime choices that are not in their own long-term interest. Authors Morris Goldstein and Philip Turner summarize what is known about the origins of currency mismatching in emerging economies, discuss how best to define and measure currency mismatching, and review policy options for reducing the size of the problem.

International Financial System

International Financial System
Author: Ross P. Buckley
Publisher: Kluwer Law International B.V.
Total Pages: 218
Release: 2009-01-01
Genre: Law
ISBN: 9041128689

Provides deep analyses of some of the devastating financial crises of the last quarter-centures by showing how such factors as the origins and destinations of loans, bank behaviour, bad timing, ignorance of history, trade regimes, capital flight, and corruption coalesce under certain circumstances to trigger a financial crash.

Managed Floating Plus

Managed Floating Plus
Author: Morris Goldstein
Publisher: Peterson Institute
Total Pages: 116
Release: 2002
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780881323368

In this analysis Morris Goldstein examines currency regime choices for emerging economies that are heavily involved with private capital markets. The author argues that the best regime choice for such economies would be managed floating plus, where "plus" is shorthand for a framework that includes inflation targeting and aggressive measures to discourage currency mismatching. Goldstein argues that if managed floating were enhanced in this way, it would retain the desirable features of a flexible rate regime while addressing the nominal anchor and balance-sheet problems that have historically underpinned a "fear of floating" and handicapped the performance of managed floating in emerging economies. The author also shows why managed floating plus is superior to four alternative currency-regime options--an adjustable peg system, a "BBC (basket, band, crawl) regime," a currency board, and dollarization.

A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk
Author: Mr.Romain Ranciere
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2010-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455210706

This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.

Currency Mismatches and Vulnerability to Exchange Rate Shocks: Nonfinancial Firms in Colombia

Currency Mismatches and Vulnerability to Exchange Rate Shocks: Nonfinancial Firms in Colombia
Author: Mr.Adolfo Barajas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2017-11-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484330129

After building up foreign currency denominated (FC) liabilities over several years, Colombian firms might be vulnerable to a shift in external conditions. We undertake three empirical exercises to better understand these vulnerabilities. First, we identify the determinants of FC borrowing. Second, we investigate the implications for real activity, finding a balance sheet effect that transmits exchange rate fluctuations to investment and is asymmetric, much stronger for depreciations than for appreciations. Finally, we find that foreign exchange derivatives are not used solely for hedging, due in part to monetary authority intervention to smooth exchange rate volatility. However, a full explanation remains open for future research.

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes
Author: Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2003-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451875843

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies

Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies
Author: Sebastian Edwards
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 699
Release: 2009-02-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226184994

Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emerging nations. In the aftermath of the East Asian currency crises of 1997, the authors consider mechanisms that eight countries have used to control capital inflows and evaluate their effectiveness in altering the maturity of the resulting external debt and reducing macroeconomic vulnerability. This volume is essential reading for all those interested in emerging nations and the costs and benefits of restricting international capital flows.

Other People's Money

Other People's Money
Author: Barry Eichengreen
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 306
Release: 2010-04-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226194574

Recent crises in emerging markets have been heavily driven by balance-sheet or net-worth effects. Episodes in countries as far-flung as Indonesia and Argentina have shown that exchange rate adjustments that would normally help to restore balance can be destabilizing, even catastrophic, for countries whose debts are denominated in foreign currencies. Many economists instinctually assume that developing countries allow their foreign debts to be denominated in dollars, yen, or euros because they simply don't know better. Presenting evidence that even emerging markets with strong policies and institutions experience this problem, Other People's Money recognizes that the situation must be attributed to more than ignorance. Instead, the contributors suggest that the problem is linked to the operation of international financial markets, which prevent countries from borrowing in their own currencies. A comprehensive analysis of the sources of this problem and its consequences, Other People's Money takes the study one step further, proposing a solution that would involve having the World Bank and regional development banks themselves borrow and lend in emerging market currencies.