Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)

Economic Analysis and Forecast of China (2015)
Author: Yang Li
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 246
Release: 2017-09-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811056544

This book provides a detailed and up-to- date analysis of the current and near-future domestic economic situation in China based on the concept of “New Normal”, which was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and which is commonly used in discussions on China’s current economy. China’s New Normal is the result of the growing pressures on domestic resources, environmental restrictions, and unstable international economic recovery and characterized by a moderate economic increase, a proper increase in commodity pricing, stabilizing new employment and optimizing economic structure. The book argues that while China focuses on stability and quality in macro-control and enhancing reform and innovation, many contradictions and problems in economic operations are gradually being solved, therefore optimizing the economic structure. The book explores many aspects of China’s economic development under the “New Normal” while making analysis and policy suggestions for the present economic trends.

Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run

Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run
Author: Maddison Angus
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 196
Release: 1998-09-25
Genre:
ISBN: 9264163557

The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China.

China's Economic Rise

China's Economic Rise
Author: Congressional Research Service
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Total Pages: 52
Release: 2017-09-17
Genre:
ISBN: 9781976466953

Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.

China 2049

China 2049
Author: David Dollar
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 444
Release: 2020-06-09
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0815738064

How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.

Making Of An Economic Superpower, The: Unlocking China's Secret Of Rapid Industrialization

Making Of An Economic Superpower, The: Unlocking China's Secret Of Rapid Industrialization
Author: Yi Wen
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 336
Release: 2016-05-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814733741

The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current 'backward' financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream 'blackboard' economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself.

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2015 Issue 1

OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2015 Issue 1
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Total Pages: 356
Release: 2015-06-19
Genre:
ISBN: 9264220224

The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.

China¿s Economic Conditions

China¿s Economic Conditions
Author: Wayne M. Morrison
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 36
Release: 2010-10
Genre: History
ISBN: 1437927629

Since the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 30 years ago, China has been one of the world¿s fastest-growing economies and has emerged as a major economic and trade power. China¿s economy and economic policies are of major concern to many U.S. policymakers. Contents of this report: Most Recent Developments; An Overview of China¿s Economic Development; Measuring the Size of China¿s Economy; Foreign Direct Investment in China; China¿s Trade Patterns; China¿s Growing Overseas Direct Investment; Major Long-Term Challenges Facing the Chinese Economy; Fallout From the Current Global Financial Crisis. Charts and tables.

China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach

China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach
Author: Min Zhu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2019-11-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513515357

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization in 2015

Chinese Strategy and Military Modernization in 2015
Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 587
Release: 2016-01-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1442259019

China’s emergence as a global economic superpower, and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for a “rebalance” of U.S. forces to the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s actions on its borders, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea have shown that it is steadily expanding its geopolitical role in the Pacific and having a steadily increasing impact on the strategy and military developments in other Asian powers.