How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve—and How to Get Back

How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve—and How to Get Back
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: Hoover Press
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2023-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 081792566X

With the inflation rate in the United States and many other countries on the rise for over a year and nearing double digits, the Hoover Institution hosted its 2022 conference on monetary policy. Policy makers, market participants, and academic researchers gathered to discuss the situation. Many agreed that low interest rates and high money growth were inappropriate given the high inflation rate and evidence that the United States has recovered from the deep recession induced by the pandemic and its policy response in 2020. The thoughtful papers and the thorough discussions in this volume of conference proceedings illustrate the debate about the reasons for this mismatch, as well as how to get back on track. They reflect a range of opinions and perspectives, including examination of the fiscal shock resulting from the COVID pandemic and the related borrowing and spending; emphasis on the value of adherence to rules versus discretion in setting Fed policy; lessons from history in the spikes in federal expenditures during times of war (including the pandemic) and in the timing of the Fed's use of its policy instruments; the role of central banks in the emerging inflation crisis; and strategies toward disinflation.

The Great Inflation

The Great Inflation
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 545
Release: 2013-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226066959

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Monetary Policy Rules

Monetary Policy Rules
Author: John B. Taylor
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 460
Release: 2007-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226791262

This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.

Choose Economic Freedom

Choose Economic Freedom
Author: George P. Shultz
Publisher: Hoover Press
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2020-03-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0817923462

What are the keys to good economic policy? George P. Shultz and John B. Taylor draw from their several decades of experience at the forefront of national economic policy making to show how market fundamentals beat politically popular government interventions—be they from Democrats or Republicans—as a recipe for success. Choose Economic Freedom reconstructs debates from the 1960s and 1970s about the use of wage and price controls as tools of policy, showing how brilliant economists can hold diametrically opposed views about the wisdom of using government intervention to spur the economy. Speeches and documents from the era include a recently unearthed memo from Arthur Burns, Federal Reserve chair, in 1971, in which he argues in favor of controls. Under Burns's guidance and in the face of stubborn inflation, Nixon introduced wage and price guidelines and freezes. But over the long run, these became a drag on the economy and ultimately failed. It wasn't until the Reagan administration that these controls were reversed, resulting in a vibrant economy. The words of iconic economist Milton Friedman—whose "free to choose" ethos inspired the free-market revolution of the Reagan era—along with lessons Shultz and Taylor learned from the front lines, demonstrate that tried-and-true economic policy works.

Collected Papers on Monetary Theory

Collected Papers on Monetary Theory
Author: Robert E. Lucas Jr.
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Total Pages: 517
Release: 2013-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0674071212

Robert Lucas is one of the outstanding monetary theorists of the past hundred years. Along with Knut Wicksell, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, James Tobin, and Milton Friedman (his teacher), Lucas revolutionized our understanding of how money interacts with the real economy of production, consumption, and exchange. Lucas’s contributions are both methodological and substantive. Methodologically, he developed dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium models to analyze economic decision-makers operating through time in a complex, probabilistic environment. Substantively, he incorporated the quantity theory of money into these models and derived its implications for money growth, inflation, and interest rates in the long run. He also showed the different effects of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the stock of money on economic fluctuations, and helped to demonstrate that there was not a long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation (the Phillips curve) that policy-makers could exploit. The twenty-one papers collected in this volume fall primarily into three categories: core monetary theory and public finance, asset pricing, and the real effects of monetary instability. Published between 1972 and 2007, they will inspire students and researchers who want to study the work of a master of economic modeling and to advance economics as a pure and applied science.

Milton Friedman

Milton Friedman
Author: Jennifer Burns
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Total Pages: 387
Release: 2023-11-14
Genre: Biography & Autobiography
ISBN: 0374601151

An Economist Best Book of 2023 | One of The New York Times's 33 Nonfiction Books to Read This Fall | Named a most anticipated fall book by the Chicago Tribune and Bloomberg "Wherever you sit on the political spectrum, there's a lot to learn from this book. More than a biography of one controversial person, it's an intellectual history of twentieth century economic thought." —Greg Rosalesky, Planet Money (NPR) The first full biography of America’s most renowned economist. Milton Friedman was, alongside John Maynard Keynes, the most influential economist of the twentieth century. His work was instrumental in the turn toward free markets that defined the 1980s, and his full-throated defenses of capitalism and freedom resonated with audiences around the world. It’s no wonder the last decades of the twentieth century have been called “the Age of Friedman”—or that analysts have sought to hold him responsible for both the rising prosperity and the social ills of recent times. In Milton Friedman, the first full biography to employ archival sources, the historian Jennifer Burns tells Friedman’s extraordinary story with the nuance it deserves. She provides lucid and lively context for his groundbreaking work on everything from why dentists earn less than doctors, to the vital importance of the money supply, to inflation and the limits of government planning and stimulus. She traces Friedman’s longstanding collaborations with women, including the economist Anna Schwartz, as well as his complex relationships with powerful figures such as Fed Chair Arthur Burns and Treasury Secretary George Shultz, and his direct interventions in policymaking at the highest levels. Most of all, Burns explores Friedman’s key role in creating a new economic vision and a modern American conservatism. The result is a revelatory biography of America’s first neoliberal—and perhaps its last great conservative.

Strategies for Monetary Policy

Strategies for Monetary Policy
Author: John Howland Cochrane
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN: 9780817923785

"As the Federal Reserve reviews its monetary policy strategy, key experts provide an in-depth discussion of the financial tools, debates, and practices that will ensure a sound US economy"--

The Mirage of Falling R-stars

The Mirage of Falling R-stars
Author: Mr. Ales Bulir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2024-07-26
Genre:
ISBN:

Was the recent decline in real interest rates driven by a diminishing natural real interest rate, or have we observed a long sequence of shocks that have pushed market rates below the equilibrium level? In this paper we show on a sample of 12 open economies that once we account for equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation/depreciation, the natural real interest rate in the 2000s and 2010s is no longer found to be declining to near or below zero. The explicit inclusion of equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation in the identification of the natural rate is the main deviation from the Laubach-Williams approach. On top of that, we use a full-blown semi-structural model with a monetary policy rule and expectations. Bayesian estimation is used to obtain parameter values for individual countries.