Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence

Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence
Author: Arkady Shemyakin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 314
Release: 2017-03-20
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1118959019

Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools needed to implement the procedures of Bayesian estimation in copula models of dependence. This book is structured in two parts: the first four chapters serve as a general introduction to Bayesian statistics with a clear emphasis on parametric estimation and the following four chapters stress statistical models of dependence with a focus of copulas. A review of the main concepts is discussed along with the basics of Bayesian statistics including prior information and experimental data, prior and posterior distributions, with an emphasis on Bayesian parametric estimation. The basic mathematical background of both Markov chains and Monte Carlo integration and simulation is also provided. The authors discuss statistical models of dependence with a focus on copulas and present a brief survey of pre-copula dependence models. The main definitions and notations of copula models are summarized followed by discussions of real-world cases that address particular risk management problems. In addition, this book includes: • Practical examples of copulas in use including within the Basel Accord II documents that regulate the world banking system as well as examples of Bayesian methods within current FDA recommendations • Step-by-step procedures of multivariate data analysis and copula modeling, allowing readers to gain insight for their own applied research and studies • Separate reference lists within each chapter and end-of-the-chapter exercises within Chapters 2 through 8 • A companion website containing appendices: data files and demo files in Microsoft® Office Excel®, basic code in R, and selected exercise solutions Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence is a reference and resource for statisticians who need to learn formal Bayesian analysis as well as professionals within analytical and risk management departments of banks and insurance companies who are involved in quantitative analysis and forecasting. This book can also be used as a textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in Bayesian statistics and analysis. ARKADY SHEMYAKIN, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Director of the Statistics Program at the University of St. Thomas. A member of the American Statistical Association and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Dr. Shemyakin's research interests include informationtheory, Bayesian methods of parametric estimation, and copula models in actuarial mathematics, finance, and engineering. ALEXANDER KNIAZEV, PhD, is Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics at Astrakhan State University in Russia. Dr. Kniazev's research interests include representation theory of Lie algebras and finite groups, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and financial mathematics.

Dependence Modeling

Dependence Modeling
Author: Harry Joe
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 370
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 981429988X

1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generation algorithm and number of equivalence classes / H. Joe, R.M. Cooke and D. Kurowicka -- 11. Optimal truncation of vines / D. Kurowicka -- 12. Bayesian inference for D-vines : Estimation and model selection / C. Czado and A. Min -- 13. Analysis of Australian electricity loads using joint Bayesian inference of D-vines with autoregressive margins / C. Czado, F. Gartner and A. Min -- 14. Non-parametric Bayesian belief nets versus vines / A. Hanea -- 15. Modeling dependence between financial returns using pair-copula constructions / K. Aas and D. Berg -- 16. Dynamic D-vine model / A. Heinen and A. Valdesogo -- 17. Summary and future directions / D. Kurowicka

Analyzing Dependent Data with Vine Copulas

Analyzing Dependent Data with Vine Copulas
Author: Claudia Czado
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre: Copulas (Mathematical statistics)
ISBN: 9783030137861

This textbook provides a step-by-step introduction to the class of vine copulas, their statistical inference and applications. It focuses on statistical estimation and selection methods for vine copulas in data applications. These flexible copula models can successfully accommodate any form of tail dependence and are vital to many applications in finance, insurance, hydrology, marketing, engineering, chemistry, aviation, climatology and health. The book explains the pair-copula construction principles underlying these statistical models and discusses how to perform model selection and inference. It also derives simulation algorithms and presents real-world examples to illustrate the methodological concepts. The book includes numerous exercises that facilitate and deepen readers understanding, and demonstrates how the R package VineCopula can be used to explore and build statistical dependence models from scratch. In closing, the book provides insights into recent developments and open research questions in vine copula based modeling. The book is intended for students as well as statisticians, data analysts and any other quantitatively oriented researchers who are new to the field of vine copulas. Accordingly, it provides the necessary background in multivariate statistics and copula theory for exploratory data tools, so that readers only need a basic grasp of statistics and probability.

Bayesian Theory and Applications

Bayesian Theory and Applications
Author: Paul Damien
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 717
Release: 2013-01-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0199695601

This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.

Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance

Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance
Author: J.E. Trinidad-Segovia
Publisher: MDPI
Total Pages: 418
Release: 2021-02-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3036501967

This book is a collection of papers for the Special Issue “Quantitative Methods for Economics and Finance” of the journal Mathematics. This Special Issue reflects on the latest developments in different fields of economics and finance where mathematics plays a significant role. The book gathers 19 papers on topics such as volatility clusters and volatility dynamic, forecasting, stocks, indexes, cryptocurrencies and commodities, trade agreements, the relationship between volume and price, trading strategies, efficiency, regression, utility models, fraud prediction, or intertemporal choice.

Bayesian Theory and Applications

Bayesian Theory and Applications
Author: Paul Damien
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Total Pages: 717
Release: 2013-01-24
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0191647004

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and developments, and who may be looking for ideas that could spawn new research. Hence, the audience for this unique book would likely include academicians/practitioners, and could likely be required reading for undergraduate and graduate students in statistics, medicine, engineering, scientific computation, business, psychology, bio-informatics, computational physics, graphical models, neural networks, geosciences, and public policy. The book honours the contributions of Sir Adrian F. M. Smith, one of the seminal Bayesian researchers, with his papers on hierarchical models, sequential Monte Carlo, and Markov chain Monte Carlo and his mentoring of numerous graduate students -the chapters are authored by prominent statisticians influenced by him. Bayesian Theory and Applications should serve the dual purpose of a reference book, and a textbook in Bayesian Statistics.

Handbook of Travel Behaviour

Handbook of Travel Behaviour
Author: Dimitris Potoglou
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 537
Release: 2024-04-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1839105747

This insightful Handbook offers a comprehensive and diverse understanding of the determinants of travel behaviour, looking at the ways in which it can be better understood, modelled and forecasted. Dimitris Potoglou and Justin Spinney bring together an international range of esteemed academics who explore the origins of the field, research analysis methods, environmental considerations, and social factors. This title contains one or more Open Access chapters.

Causal Inference in Econometrics

Causal Inference in Econometrics
Author: Van-Nam Huynh
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 626
Release: 2015-12-28
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3319272845

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

Copula Methods in Finance

Copula Methods in Finance
Author: Umberto Cherubini
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 310
Release: 2004-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0470863455

Copula Methods in Finance is the first book to address the mathematics of copula functions illustrated with finance applications. It explains copulas by means of applications to major topics in derivative pricing and credit risk analysis. Examples include pricing of the main exotic derivatives (barrier, basket, rainbow options) as well as risk management issues. Particular focus is given to the pricing of asset-backed securities and basket credit derivative products and the evaluation of counterparty risk in derivative transactions.