Probability, Choice, and Reason

Probability, Choice, and Reason
Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: CRC Press
Total Pages: 311
Release: 2021-09-15
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1000458873

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

Choice and Chance

Choice and Chance
Author: Brian Skyrms
Publisher:
Total Pages: 184
Release: 1975
Genre: Philosophy
ISBN:

The Probability of God

The Probability of God
Author: Dr. Stephen D. Unwin
Publisher: Forum Books
Total Pages: 274
Release: 2004-10-26
Genre: Religion
ISBN: 1400054788

Does God exist? This is probably the most debated question in the history of mankind. Scholars, scientists, and philosophers have spent their lifetimes trying to prove or disprove the existence of God, only to have their theories crucified by other scholars, scientists, and philosophers. Where the debate breaks down is in the ambiguities and colloquialisms of language. But, by using a universal, unambiguous language—namely, mathematics—can this question finally be answered definitively? That’s what Dr. Stephen Unwin attempts to do in this riveting, accessible, and witty book, The Probability of God. At its core, this groundbreaking book reveals how a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists. The equation itself is much more complicated than a simple coin toss (heads, He’s up there running the show; tails, He’s not). Yet Dr. Unwin writes with a clarity that makes his mathematical proof easy for even the nonmathematician to understand and a verve that makes his book a delight to read. Leading you carefully through each step in his argument, he demonstrates in the end that God does indeed exist. Whether you’re a devout believer and agree with Dr. Unwin’s proof or are unsure about all things divine, you will find this provocative book enlightening and engaging. “One of the most innovative works [in the science and religion movement] is The Probability of God...An entertaining exercise in thinking.”—Michael Shermer, Scientific American “Unwin’s book [is] peppered with wry, self-deprecating humor that makes the scientific discussions more accessible...Spiritually inspiring.”--Chicago Sun Times “A pleasantly breezy account of some complicated matters well worth learning about.”--Philadelphia Inquirer “One of the best things about the book is its humor.”--Cleveland Plain Dealer “In a book that is surprisingly lighthearted and funny, Unwin manages to pack in a lot of facts about science and philosophy.”--Salt Lake Tribune

Philosophical Theories of Probability

Philosophical Theories of Probability
Author: Donald Gillies
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 238
Release: 2012-09-10
Genre: Philosophy
ISBN: 1134672462

The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

The Science of Reason

The Science of Reason
Author: Ken Manktelow
Publisher: Psychology Press
Total Pages: 473
Release: 2010-10-18
Genre: Philosophy
ISBN: 1136939091

This volume is a state-of-the-art survey of the psychology of reasoning, based around, and in tribute to, one of the field’s most eminent figures: Jonathan St B.T. Evans. In this collection of cutting edge research, Evans’ collaborators and colleagues review a wide range of important and developing areas of inquiry. These include biases in thinking, probabilistic and causal reasoning, people’s use of ‘if’ sentences in arguments, the dual-process theory of thought, and the nature of human rationality. These foundational issues are examined from various angles and finally integrated in a concluding panoramic chapter written by Evans himself. The eighteen chapters, all written by leading international researchers, combine state-of the-art research with investigation into the most fundamental questions surrounding human mental life, such as: What is the architecture of the human mind? Are humans rational, and what is the nature of this rationality? How do we think hypothetically? The Science of Reason offers a unique combination of breadth, depth and integrative vision, making it an indispensable resource for researchers and students of human reason.

The Roots of Reason

The Roots of Reason
Author: David Papineau
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 253
Release: 2006-01-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0199288712

David Papineau presents a controversial view of human reason, portraying it as a normal part of the natural world, and drawing on the empirical sciences to illuminate its workings. In these six interconnected essays he offers a fresh approach to some long-standing problems.Papineau rejects the contemporary orthodoxy that genuine thought hinges on some species of non-natural normativity. He explores the evolutionary histories of theoretical and practical rationality, indicating ways in which capacities underlying human reasoning have been selected for their biological advantages. He then looks at the connection between decision and probability, explaining how good decisions need to be informed by causal as well as probabilistic facts. Finally he defends theradical view that a satisfactory understanding of decision-making is only possible within a specific interpretation of quantum mechanics.By placing the subject in its scientific context, Papineau shows how human rationality plays an explicable role in the functioning of the natural world.

Aggregation Functions in Theory and in Practise

Aggregation Functions in Theory and in Practise
Author: Humberto Bustince Sola
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 535
Release: 2013-06-20
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3642391656

This volume collects the extended abstracts of 45 contributions of participants to the Seventh International Summer School on Aggregation Operators (AGOP 2013), held at Pamplona in July, 16-20, 2013. These contributions cover a very broad range, from the purely theoretical ones to those with a more applied focus. Moreover, the summaries of the plenary talks and tutorials given at the same workshop are included. Together they provide a good overview of recent trends in research in aggregation functions which can be of interest to both researchers in Physics or Mathematics working on the theoretical basis of aggregation functions, and to engineers who require them for applications.

Logic, Probability, and Presumptions in Legal Reasoning

Logic, Probability, and Presumptions in Legal Reasoning
Author: Scott Brewer
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 416
Release: 2013-06-17
Genre: Philosophy
ISBN: 1135642745

At least since plato and Aristotle, thinkers have pondered the relationship between philosophical arguments and the "sophistical" arguments offered by the Sophists -- who were the first professional lawyers. Judges wield substantial political power, and the justifications they offer for their decisions are a vital means by which citizens can assess the legitimacy of how that power is exercised. However, to evaluate judicial justifications requires close attention to the method of reasoning behind decisions. This new collection illuminates and explains the political and moral importance in justifying the exercise of judicial power.

Paradoxes in Probability Theory

Paradoxes in Probability Theory
Author: William Eckhardt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 85
Release: 2012-09-27
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9400751397

Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.​