The Doomsday Calculation

The Doomsday Calculation
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark
Total Pages: 320
Release: 2019-06-04
Genre: Science
ISBN: 031644071X

From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.

Rock Breaks Scissors

Rock Breaks Scissors
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark
Total Pages: 266
Release: 2014-06-03
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0316228087

A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they try not to be. William Poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home. Rock Breaks Scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. Rock Breaks Scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor.

Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?

Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Hachette+ORM
Total Pages: 229
Release: 2012-01-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 031619297X

You are shrunk to the height of a nickel and thrown in a blender. The blades start moving in 60 seconds. What do you do? If you want to work at Google, or any of America's best companies, you need to have an answer to this and other puzzling questions. Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? guides readers through the surprising solutions to dozens of the most challenging interview questions. The book covers the importance of creative thinking, ways to get a leg up on the competition, what your Facebook page says about you, and much more. Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? is a must-read for anyone who wants to succeed in today's job market.

How to Predict Everything

How to Predict Everything
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Oneworld
Total Pages: 320
Release: 2020-04-02
Genre:
ISBN: 9781786077561

How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?

The ISIS Apocalypse

The ISIS Apocalypse
Author: William Faizi McCants
Publisher: Macmillan
Total Pages: 258
Release: 2015-09-22
Genre: History
ISBN: 1250080908

A comprehensive history of ISIS based on insider accounts and secret communications few outsiders have seen

Priceless

Priceless
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Hill and Wang
Total Pages: 350
Release: 2010-01-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1429943939

Prada stores carry a few obscenely expensive items in order to boost sales for everything else (which look like bargains in comparison). People used to download music for free, then Steve Jobs convinced them to pay. How? By charging 99 cents. That price has a hypnotic effect: the profit margin of the 99 Cents Only store is twice that of Wal-Mart. Why do text messages cost money, while e-mails are free? Why do jars of peanut butter keep getting smaller in order to keep the price the "same"? The answer is simple: prices are a collective hallucination. In Priceless, the bestselling author William Poundstone reveals the hidden psychology of value. In psychological experiments, people are unable to estimate "fair" prices accurately and are strongly influenced by the unconscious, irrational, and politically incorrect. It hasn't taken long for marketers to apply these findings. "Price consultants" advise retailers on how to convince consumers to pay more for less, and negotiation coaches offer similar advice for businesspeople cutting deals. The new psychology of price dictates the design of price tags, menus, rebates, "sale" ads, cell phone plans, supermarket aisles, real estate offers, wage packages, tort demands, and corporate buyouts. Prices are the most pervasive hidden persuaders of all. Rooted in the emerging field of behavioral decision theory, Priceless should prove indispensable to anyone who negotiates.

The Procrastination Equation

The Procrastination Equation
Author: Piers Steel
Publisher: Random House Canada
Total Pages: 322
Release: 2010-12-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0307366383

DON'T WAIT TO READ THIS BOOK: The world's leading expert on procrastination uses his groundbreaking research to offer understanding on a matter that bedevils us all. Writing with humour, humanity and solid scientific information reminiscent of Stumbling on Happiness and Freakonomics, Piers Steel explains why we knowingly and willingly put off a course of action despite recognizing we'll be worse off for it. For those who surf the Web instead of finishing overdue assignments, who always say diets start tomorrow, who stay up late watching TV to put off going to sleep, The Procrastination Equation explains why we do what we do—or in this case don't—and why in Western societies we're in the midst of an escalating procrastination epidemic. Dr. Piers Steel takes on the myths and misunderstandings behind procrastination and motivation. With accessible prose and the benefits of new scientific research, he provides insight into why we procrastinate even though the result is that we are less happy, healthy, and even wealthy. Who procrastinates and why? How many ways, big and small, do we procrastinate? How can we stop doing it? The reasons are part cultural, part psychological, part biological. And, with a million new ways to distract ourselves in the digitized world, more of us are potentially damaging ourselves by putting things off. But Steel not only analyzes the factors that weigh us down but the things that motivate us—including understanding the value of procrastination.

Head in the Cloud

Head in the Cloud
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 238
Release: 2017-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1786072858

Never before have we had so much information at our fingertips. You might think that we are better-informed than ever, but there’s one thing we can’t ask Google: ‘What should I be googling?’ The way we consume information in the digital age has been blamed for driving political polarisation and leaving us unable to agree on basic facts. It’s also making us stupider. Personalised news feeds and social media echo chambers narrow our potential knowledge base. By now, we don’t even know what we don’t know. In Head in the Cloud, William Poundstone investigates the true worth of knowledge. An entertaining manifesto underpinned by big data analysis and illustrated by eye-opening anecdotes, it reveals the surprising benefits of broadening your horizons and provides an unnerving look at the consequences of being ill-informed.

Quick(er) Calculations

Quick(er) Calculations
Author: Trevor Davis Lipscombe
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2021-05-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0192594001

How fast can you calculate? Would you like to be faster? This book presents the time honored tricks and tips of calculation, from a fresh perspective, to boost the speed at which you can add — whether a couple of numbers, or columns so long an accountant may faint. Find out how to subtract, multiply, divide, and find square roots more quickly. What's more, this book gives suggestions for how to find answers that are “good enough” for tricky tasks like dividing by 17. It includes brand new ways to multiply and divide irrational numbers such as pi, e, the square root of 2, and the golden ratio. It has sections devoted to ancient mathematics, and the techniques we can borrow from previous and other cultures, in order to calculate more quickly. Examples, some serious, some fun, come from everyday life or from history — like hot dog eating competitions, the Vatican's cricket team, the molecular weight of the molecule with the world's longest name, and the amount of people taken by Henry VIII to arguably history's biggest party, the Field of the Cloth of Gold. In an age of timed multiple-choice questions, the swifter you can sum, or rule out wrong answers, the better you will do. If you love to play with numbers, this book will be recreational reading. And if you ever wonder whether simple arithmetic problems can crop up in everyday life, this book provides a fresh perspective.