The Logic of Intelligence Analysis

The Logic of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Karl Spielmann
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 169
Release: 2018-06-12
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0429891881

This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Total Pages: 336
Release: 2020-03-05
Genre: History
ISBN: 1839743050

In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts

Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts
Author: Noel Hendrickson
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Total Pages: 357
Release: 2018-03-29
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1442272325

The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis
Author: David T. Moore
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2010-10
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1437934927

Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Martha Whitesmith
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Total Pages: 304
Release: 2020-09-21
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1474466362

This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis

Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis
Author: Gregory F. Treverton
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 75
Release: 2008-02-27
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0833046012

This report assesses intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies and makes a number of recommendations, some of which parallel initiatives that have begun in the wake of the December 2004 legislation, for instance, create a Deputy Director of National Intelligence as a focal point for analysis, establish a National Intelligence University, build a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council, and form an Open Source Center for making more creative use of open-source materials.

Intelligence Analysis

Intelligence Analysis
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 352
Release: 2011-03-08
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 0309210925

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Cases in Intelligence Analysis
Author: Sarah Miller Beebe
Publisher: CQ Press
Total Pages: 340
Release: 2014-04-28
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1483340147

In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.