Uzbekistan's Transition to Inflation Targeting

Uzbekistan's Transition to Inflation Targeting
Author: Moayad Al Rasasi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2022-11-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Uzbekistan has significantly improved its monetary policy framework during 2017-21. Nevertheless, the transition to inflation targeting is challenging as the country is going through a period of deep structural reforms. Therefore, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) will have to monitor structural reforms and calibrate monetary policy accordingly. This paper identifies institutional and structural gaps, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Institutional gaps are assessed using institutional indexes while transmission is assessed using VARs. It concludes that in the coming years, reforms will need to continue, to further improve the CBU’s governance and independence, develop financial markets, but most of all to reduce the still large footprint of the state in the financial sector as well as in the overall economy.

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 61
Release: 2014-05-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498343694

With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 74
Release: 2015-10-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498344062

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Uzbekistan Quality Job Creation as a Cornerstone for Sustainable Economic Growth

Uzbekistan Quality Job Creation as a Cornerstone for Sustainable Economic Growth
Author: Kym Anderson
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Total Pages: 217
Release: 2020-06-01
Genre: Law
ISBN: 9292621955

Uzbekistan has achieved sustained growth through its gradual transition to a market-based economy through cautious economic policy reforms. Despite its gradual approach to development challenges, the country experienced the smallest output decline among former Soviet economies and enjoyed high rates of economic growth from 2004 to 2015, largely driven by the high prices of its major export commodities. However, the drop in the global prices of many key commodities in recent years have severely impacted Uzbekistan's economy. Under these circumstances, the new government introduced major reforms. The pace of reform is unprecedented. The government has formulated its long-term economic strategy in its Vision 2030, which aims to double the country's gross domestic product by 2030 through a program of economic diversification. This book analyzes how Uzbekistan can boost sustainable economic growth to create more and better jobs. It considers how the country can consolidate achievements from recent policy reforms and maintain reform efforts to accelerate sustainable growth. Policy recommendations cover fostering macroeconomic stability, increasing investment in physical infrastructure, enhancing human capital, improving firms' access to finance, and lowering barriers to international trade and foreign investment inflows.

Argentina

Argentina
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2017-12-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484335740

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Argentina’s government has made important progress in restoring integrity and transparency in public sector operations. These policy changes have put the economy on a stronger footing and corrected many of the most urgent macroeconomic imbalances. Private consumption strengthened in 2017, supported by greater real wages and buoyant credit growth. With stronger domestic demand, the trade surplus turned into a deficit and the current account deficit increased. Annual inflation has declined from its peak in 2016, but remained relatively resilient and inflation expectations moved up, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates. Going forward, GDP growth is expected to consolidate, inflation inertia will slowly subside, and the fiscal deficit will gradually fall.

Inflation-Forecast Targeting

Inflation-Forecast Targeting
Author: Kevin Clinton
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2015-06-24
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513557653

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.

Why Inflation Targeting?

Why Inflation Targeting?
Author: Charles Freedman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2009-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145187233X

This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

Republic of Uzbekistan

Republic of Uzbekistan
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2020-06-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151354649X

The contents of this report constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the IMF to the authorities of the Republic of Uzbekistan in response to their request for technical assistance. The main objective of the mission was to assist the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan in improving the collection, processing, and dissemination of balance of payments, international investment position, and gross external debt statistical data, including improvement of the International Transactions Reporting System, as well as implementation of a medium-term program for further development. After the Republic of Uzbekistan authorities embarked on a course toward greater openness in the country, Uzbekistan made some progress in improving the production and dissemination of statistical data, but in addition to the gains that were seen, the mission noted a number of deficiencies in the External sector statistics compilation system. It is imperative to correct the methodology for calculating operations involving reinvested income for financial corporations and reflect the results obtained in the balance of payments.

Central Banking in Transition Countries

Central Banking in Transition Countries
Author: Mr.Helmut Wagner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 1998-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451936680

In the 1990s, the issues of central banking and central bank independence have gained increasing attention, in part owing to the role of the future European central bank, but also owing to the emergence of transition countries and the role of central banks in these countries. The main focus of the paper is on the preconditions of disinflation and successful stability policy in transition countries, paying special attention to the institutional requirements and to the choice of nominal anchors.